7/20/19  Gold Higher, For Now


As the gold bugs approach Nirvana with the recent $100/oz. blip higher, there may be something else … on a massive scale afoot.


Pulling out to the quarterly chart, we see typical market behavior.  There was a huge bull market from 2001 (or so), to 2011.  That top covered approximately two years before heading decisively lower.


Markets usually test wide, high volume areas.  On a long-term scale, that’s what appears to be taking place.


With recent upward action, the wide quarterly bar from mid-2013, is being tested.


What comes next is the important part


There’s a lot more trading action to come in the current quarter.  However, if there’s little upward progress on a go-forward basis, then gold (GLD) might be forming an up-thrust with potential for another leg down … possibly to the $550, area.


What about hyper inflation?  Aren’t we there now?  Isn’t the dollar virtually worthless?


It’s possible that corn, wheat, and other commodities are going to be worth more than gold (for a while) in the near future … more on that later.


In the meantime, it’s probably a good idea to review Genesis 41 – 47 (KJV).  Just one of many (recent) supporting links is here.  Remember the ammunition panic in 2008, after the Presidential election?  a $12.95 box of .45 ACP, went to $55.00, if you could find it. 


Side note:  Ammunition, when properly stored can keep its value and last 50 - 70 years or more.

6/30/19:  Senior Mining Sector at Up-thrust?


The price of gold (GLD) is higher and yet the senior mining index, GDX (along with the juniors) is lower.


If gold reverses from here, the entire mining ‘space’ may be in serious trouble … as if it’s not already.


The prior GDX sequencing from spring to up-thrust is clear.  Now the sector may be at another pivot point.


As indicated in the 6/17/19 update, the juniors look to be the most susceptible to lower prices. 

  • High volume leveraged inverse funds for this sector are:  DUST and JDST

Note:  JDST was traded at the GLD danger point from June 14th to the 18th.  The trade was exited during the pre-market session on the 18th for a minor, nine-tenths (0.92) point loss (includes commissions).


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6/17/19:  Gold Reversal


Gold (GLD) is posting nearly textbook conditions for a reversal.


There was a failed attempt (last week) to make and hold new highs.  The weekly MACD may be diverging; The possibility for such an event was covered in the 4/24/19 update.


We’re now at the danger point where price action can go either way.  This is the point where risk is least.


Within the gold sector, the most vulnerable to lower prices may be the junior miners, GDXJ.


JDST is the leveraged inverse fund for that sector.


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Gold:  First Rally Fails, And Now The Second?


There has been one attempt at a spring in gold and one failure.  Now, we have another spring attempt as shown on the chart.


When a scenario does not work out as expected, something else is happening.


Two charts of GLD, provided here.


The first chart shows the analysis above.  The second chart shows another view.


Are we in a bullish set-up, a trading channel or both?

5/9/19:  Gold (GLD) Update


Gold Set-Up


Looks like gold (GLD) is set to have some kind of rally.  The character of the spring set-up is more labored than previous action so it may not be as dynamic.


Note how long price has remained below support; about four times as long as prior moves.


Silver To Single Digits?


Back in the old days with Middle East tensions rising, gold and silver would be trading in a brisk bull market or at panic levels.


We'll see what happens at the open on Monday.  If you want to check silver futures markets opening late Sunday, click here.


Meanwhile, here’s another potential (not a forecast) for silver.  The last update showed a breakout from a wedge that’s actually within another, larger wedge.


Targeting Silver (SLV) to $11/oz.


We’ll let the chart speak for itself.


The attached link is a presentation on “why” silver will move higher; the arguments are all fundamental(s) with no charts on what silver is actually doing.


At this point SLV has broken lower out of a wedge, tested that breakout and is now moving (albeit drifting) lower.


It’s interesting that both the Fibonacci projection taken from the April, 2011 highs, and the measured move out of the wedge coincide.


Silver at $11/oz. is lower than (projected) production costs of First Majestic Silver (AG) for 2020.  What’s going to happen to its stock price if/when silver reaches that level?



Gold Update







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Gold trade still viable?


The short answer is yes.  The long answer is we’re probably not going to trade the upside.


The weekly chart of GLD has it in spring position.  However, if there is a move higher and if that move reaches new highs, there’s a possibility a bearish MACD divergence will be created.


Note the previous bearish divergence on the chart.  The result was a huge move in GLD; a collapse of 18 – 24 points depending on the point of measurement.


During that move, GDX was shorted using a series of put options.  A detail of that trade is here.


If GLD moves higher, what’s more likely from my firm’s standpoint, is to monitor price action and observe the behavior if/when there is a breakout to new weekly or monthly highs.


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Pre-Market Gold


GLD is trading higher in the pre-market session and validating the spring set‑up.  Currently, we’re at 120.79 (+0.35%) which puts GLD above the highs of the past three sessions.


Price action still remains below the 121-resistance area.  However, we may be at the point to expect a rally above this resistance and potentially move sharply higher.


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Gold Higher?


Gold (GLD) has penetrated support and stopped dead. 


We’re at the danger point


There's also a wedge pattern as shown.  If this pattern is in-effect (viable) and GLD rallies from here, the measured move is in the vicinity of 130; or approximately $1,375 in the spot market.


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