7/14/19:  Futures Account Re-activate


 During the next meltdown, the stock market may close but the commodity market(s) could stay open.


The Money GPS has speculated and rightly so, during the next downturn, there'll likely be continual market closures as equities (and bonds) successively gap lower session after session.


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Corn Down Before Up?


'Commercials' near record short, pointing to potential short term lower prices.


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Natural Gas



With natural gas (UNG) penetrating support and failing to move lower, we’re now in spring position.


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Targeting Silver (SLV) to $11/oz.


We’ll let the chart speak for itself.


The attached link is a presentation on “why” silver will move higher; the arguments are all fundamental(s) with no charts on what silver is actually doing.


At this point SLV has broken lower out of a wedge, tested that breakout and is now moving (albeit drifting) lower.


It’s interesting that both the Fibonacci projection taken from the April, 2011 highs, and the measured move out of the wedge coincide.


Silver at $11/oz. is lower than (projected) production costs of First Majestic Silver (AG) for 2020.  What’s going to happen to its stock price if/when silver reaches that level?



Evidence of a struggle


After its earnings release, JNJ has struggled to move higher.  Last week JNJ closed barely above its previously weekly high (close) posted on 3/29/19.


Note:  Last Friday was Fibonacci Day 8, after the earnings release on Tuesday the 16th.


Potential sell signal is a new daily low below 139.31.


Charts by StockCharts

7/15/19:  Biotech IBB, Pre-Market Shows Higher Open


Oscillating around support and resistance is normal market behavior. 


For Biotech IBB, we’re at the juncture between spring and gap-fill higher and/or contact and verification of an aggressive -91%, annualized trend-line.


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7/20/19:  Gold Higher, For Now


As the gold bugs approach Nirvana with the recent $100/oz. blip higher, there may be something else … on a massive scale afoot.


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S&P Takes A Hit


It’s just after the open and the S&P is confirming an aggressive down trend-line.


Currently declining at approximately 81%, it won’t take long to get to obvious support levels.


If the S&P is going to make it to the 3,300 area by late August, early September, it’s got to have fuel.


Pushing below established support, causing the shorts to go short and the longs to bail out, may provide enough instability for a summer rally.


This downside action and the swiftness of it, is another reason the professionals prefer the short side.


We’ll probably have the obligatory picture of floor traders at the NYSE looking all pensive. 


What’s really in their heads may be something like this:


“My boss is going to kill me.  I've only made $500,000 on this down move and it should be $3,000,000 !!!” J


All of the financial air time and the continuous machinations over valuations are a distraction.  Price action itself, reveals the next likely direction.


Meanwhile, back at the ranch, ABBV is in a downside breakout.  Currently trading down -2.36%.  That’s nearly twice the loss of the S&P at this time.


S&P "Usual Suspects"


Initial stages of a retrace may be in process for the S&P.


If so, we’ve identified a probable support level.  That level happens to be the area identified on February 10th as a ‘danger point’.


A retrace at this time, puts aside the 3,300 top in the vicinity of June – July and now puts that top (potentially) around August –September … the usual suspects area for market tops.


Long Bond Reversal Test



At this juncture, the risk is least.


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Real Estate

Pre-market at 8:52 a.m EST


It’s the pre-market session and the bid/ask on IYR indicates a higher open.


Read more …



CVNA is an accident waiting to happen.  “Cash incinerator” is what the article at this link calls it.


CVNA is similar to ABBV in the book value area. 


It’s not ABBV negative, but is doing much better at positive 38-cents


Debt to equity is an eye-popping 1,000%


The raw chart of CVNA is included with my personal notes.  The entity has been under watch for some time and there were a few trades placed around October last year.


Fibonacci Day 21, from the 5/19, high is shown.  It may be an opportunity or not.  At this point, real time price action will be monitored to get re-acquainted with liquidity and characteristics.

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This site is for purpose of demonstrating the truth of market behavior; outlined by a market master: Richard D. Wyckoff in his text, Studies In Tape Reading, published 1910. 

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