7/17/19:  IYR Short via SRS

 

The Daily MACD shows a bearish divergence for Real Estate, IYR.  The Weekly MACD has essentially flat-lined and bonds appear to be correcting lower.

 

That was the premise for going short IYR via the inverse fund SRS.

 

The chart shows the entry and exit points for the position just closed.  SRS values for entry and exit were 20.86, and 20.71 respectively; a loss of -0.72%.

 

After decades of trading price action, I’m looking for something very specific.  If I can’t tell you what the market is doing, then I’m out.

 

The fact that MACD posted a bearish divergence was already a negative in a sense.  All other (amateur) traders see that indicator.  So, I’m right in there with them … a bother in itself.

 

Even so, the expectation was for a lower open today, with continuation lower.  Instead, we got a higher open, then low and then price rising (with volume) into the close.  Not a good sign if you’re short.

 

IYR may continue on lower.  However, it’s not exhibiting at this point, the type of ‘trapped money’ behavior that would indicate a swift move down.

 

I’d rather move on to something less obvious (than just MACD) and more constructive to a long-term sustained move.