7/11/19

Pre-market at 8:52 a.m EST

 

It’s the pre-market session and the bid/ask on IYR indicates a higher open.

 

If so, we’re in an uptrend to new highs that is also showing a potential, yet unconfirmed bearish divergence.

 

Pre-market activity in bonds is down, with rates rising. 

 

We’re looking for a break of the trend-line as a clue the move is over or has stalled  

 

Entry opportunities in one of the inverse funds, SRS or DRV will be assessed at that time.

 

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7/9/19

Mid Session:  11:30 a.m. EST

 

Even as bonds enter a correction or reverse outright, commercial real estate (IYR) looks like it wants to make a new high.

 

The dashed trend-line may be a blow-off top … which projects to this week or early next.

 

Potential news catalysts for a new high are FOMC minutes release tomorrow, the 10th and Weekly Jobless claims on Thursday, the 11th.

 

Financial Calendar link is here.

 

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, what’s in the release is not important.  The news event itself and the following financial press machinations, provide enough excuse for professionals to drive prices where they want.

 

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6/30/19:  Real Estate (IYR)

 

Looking at the long term chart of real estate (IYR) we see each major draw-down or reversal covered about 10-points.

 

The index may be reversing again … and as with each reversal, it may be the last time.

 

If we’re in another downturn, from an empirical and statistical standpoint, we can expect to move approximately 10-points lower before the next attempt higher.

 

Leveraged, relatively liquid inverse funds for this sector are SRS (2X inverse) and DRV (3X inverse).

 

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4/17/19

 

Real Estate Breaks

 

IYR may attempt a rebound off the lows in the early session or it may just keep on going. 

 

Note the significant bearish MACD divergence on the daily chart 

 

The weekly (MACD) still shows some upward momentum which may point probabilities to a short-lived upside test.

 

Either way, it looks like there is downside opportunity.

 

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3/23/19

Real Estate Reverses

 

In the 3/15/19 update (see here), the IYR was projected to reach the 87 area as a measured move.  IYR reversed just shy of that mark at 86.99.

 

It’s interesting that we have a reversal in this index while at the same time, the long bond reached a new (post 11/2/18) reversal high with rates going down correspondingly.

 

Which one is the weaker?

 

The fact that IYR reversed perfectly at the measured target is probably a technical point only.  Plenty of other traders saw the set-up and acted accordingly.

 

Note how the MACD divergence is ticking slightly higher.  Not as weak as it looked earlier.

 

So, the real story (and opportunity) may be in bonds; More on that in the next update.

 

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3/16/19

Real Estate ... Beuller Edition

 

With real estate absolutely stretched, the professionals look like they're getting out.

 

At the end of Friday’s session, the IYR had the largest two hour (down) volume as far back as we have data.  All the way to August 17th of 2018.

 

On top of that, it was the largest four-hour volume as far back as January 23rd of that year.

 

If you look at the daily chart, the volume does not appear all that significant.  It’s as if the pros are trying to hide their moves within the data. 

 

After all, who looks at two-hour and four-hour charts anyway?

Beuller? … Beuller?


3/15/19: 

Real Estate Topping Out

(pre-market) 

 

The real estate sector (IYR as proxy) may be in the last stages of its move off the December 26th lows.

 

A wedge pattern typically occurs during the end of a move … either up or down.

 

The measured move off the upside breakout is to the 87-area.  IYR is already posting a bearish daily divergence as seen in the MACD below the bar chart.

 

If and when it reverses, initial support is 83 – 85 but after that, it’s a long way down to the next levels.

 

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