7/31/19:  12:32 p.m. EST  SOXX To Test Higher?

 

It’s about 90-minutes before the Fed announcement and SOXX is in spring position.

 

Last update posed that SOXX would test the all-time highs; Looks ready.

 

Springs and up-thrusts can fail.  However, SOXX momentum (weekly MACD) is still posting higher.  Probabilities favor some kind of test.


7/25/19: 

Semiconductors Test And Reverse?

 

12:11 p.m., EST

 

The monthly chart of the semiconductor index (SOXX as proxy) shows potential for violent downside action.

 

Massive downward thrusts indicate SOXX may be under distribution … even as the index makes new highs.

 

The last session had SOXX in a breakout to new highs that maintained the upward advance nearly to the close.

 

Today is a different story.  A gap lower open and then (currently) a struggle to maintain upward momentum.

 

The monthly chart shows the up-thrust and then test.  It’s rare but possible the test actually occurs at a higher level.  The Wyckoff training materials available at this link, have at least one example of a test lower during a spring set-up.

 

Just reverse the conditions for up-thrust and one has the test posting just past the previous up-thrust.

 

SOXX inverse fund with high liquidity is (3X inverse) SOXS.


2/3/19:   

SOX in Danger. 

 

The weekly chart shows a clear spring to up‑thrust set up.

 

Note how little progress was made in the past week to make a new high.  The index barely budged above the high posted from the previous week.

 

While all eyes are focused on the S&P, attempting to analyze every squiggle, other indices such as the SOX are showing a clear set-up.

 

There is of course no guarantee of a reversal from this point.  The set-up only identifies the potential for a trend change.