The Appointed Place Originally posted: 6/19/15, updated 12/31/18
“To every man there comes a time in his lifetime that special moment when he is figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered a chance to do a very special thing unique to him and fitted to his talent.
What a tragedy if that moment finds him unprepared or unqualified for the work which would be his finest hour.” Winston Churchill
When I was thirteen years old, I found myself at Rickmansworth Grammar School in England. My parents had relocated from the U.S. as part of my late father’s assignment to Gulf Oil Corporation’s, London office.
We stayed in England for a total of five years and for two of those years, I was enrolled in the British public school system.
I wore the school uniform. I played on the Football (Soccer) pitch and was part of the school Rugby team. If there was one thing that became crystal clear to me during my British immersion, it was that between Churchill, the Spitfire, a few hundred or so RAF fighter pilots, they literally saved the world.
No matter about D-Day and the subsequent help from the "Yanks”, to the Brits (at least as far as my classmates were concerned), Churchill was it: Full‑stop.
It was not until decades later while researching Churchill at length, that I realized what an unlikely candidate he was for such a task.
As a young man and in his own words, he despaired about his physical frailties. He had a slight build, a lisp and was going bald.
In addition to that, his father (Lord Randolph Churchill) summarily rejected his own son and said in effect that he would not ever amount to anything.
During his political career, Churchill made one mistake after another: The Dardanelles, Gallipoli, and on. By the time Churchill was sixty, his career as a Member of Parliament was considered finished. His colleagues were convinced that his time had well passed.
However, there was a different plan afoot for Churchill. At sixty‑five years old, an age typically associated with nearing retirement, he became Prime Minister.
The scriptural overtones should be evident. He was despised, rejected. The unlikely candidate, too old, too frail, and washed-up.
The Financial War
During the build‑up of the German military machine in the 1930s, the British for the most part remained passive.
It was not until the war had already begun and not until pacification was dealt a death blow (via Chamberlain’s ouster) did the British finally awake. And yet, their war time leader came from controversial origins, from an unexpected place, in unexpected form.
Which brings us to today: Americans are essentially behaving the same as the British of the late 1930s only worse. The majority of Americans continue to practice investment ignorance and abdication.
They sit idly by (or frozen in fear) as the financial military machine, the machine of status-quo, of establishment “robo-advisors", of ever increasing government regulations which feign security and offer false protection, gather strength for what may be a most decisive battle.
Robert Prechter Jr. has stated in his book Conquer the Crash that in the coming major bear market, there will be one segment of American society that is completely and decisively wiped‑out financially.
That segment has already been identified as the Middle Class.
It's likely the soon‑to‑not‑be middle class are unaware that those who have means are already building financial bunkers. They are leaving the country or setting up capital management firms of their own that do not have to register with the SEC.
It can be said with a fair amount of confidence that if your wealth adviser did not make you “wealthy” during the last melt‑down, then how are they going to be able to do it in the next? I have been told by my middle-aged peers that profiting in down markets is beyond their realm of understanding.
At best, the typical plan of an average advisory firm is to minimize losses on the way down. At worst, they switch on the "we're in it for the long haul" mantra and ride the market to the bottom. Instead of actively (and bravely, but carefully) wading into a bear market to generate profits for their clients, they cower in fear and minimize losses.
Referring back to Prechter, he published that during the coming (mega) bear market, the advisory business will be 'shaken to the core' and brought to its knees.
Just to be clear, professionals prefer bear markets as it's much easier to be profitable. It's interesting to note in the above link we see that just five paragraphs down, the former hedge‑fund manager is now running a family office.
A “family office” is exempt from SEC registration requirements. This clarification was part of the Dodd‑Frank bill that was put into effect in 2010. Back in 2010, it was already understood that there will be another financial collapse. Laws are put in place that placate the public and will benefit those who understand the dynamics of what is to come.
The Coming “Blitz”
With the American culture now firmly established in a paradigm of publicly building up individuals and then tearing them down, why would anyone of substance and character volunteer to be a savior for the middle class?
Couple that with widespread decay of morals and the casting-off of restraint. This casting‑off really started in earnest during the 1960s. We now appear to be reaching a final crescendo. All one has to do is reference Deuteronomy 28: 31, to get a sense of what may be coming.
Substitute “IRA Account” for ‘Ox’. Substitute “Banking Account” for ‘donkey’ and substitute “Savings Account” for ‘sheep’ and we are able to bring it up to date. Confiscation of assets has already been tested in Cyprus.
This is not a time of re‑building. The judgment has yet to take place: A potential Blitzkrieg of financial destruction.
The Way Out
I used to ride the London subway as a kid: The “tube” as the Brits called it.
The subway (the Underground) had many interconnecting lines. One of those was the Bakerloo. It ran especially deep under London. At a typical Bakerloo destination, you would get out of your rail car and look up to see a sign that said: “Way Out”. Following the sign led you to several ascending layers of escalators and finally out into the light.
The majority of the middle class remains in deep financial darkness. Statements from my friends and acquaintances indicates that not only are they in the dark, some of them (actually most), continue blindly on wishing that things were different. They continue to implement ineffective market strategies such as buy‑and‑hold and diversification.
However, there is a way out of being crushed by a financial bear market. There is a way out into the light and to rise above the standard of mediocrity enforced by the financial establishment.
Your reading of this message is not a fluke or stroke of luck. As Oswald Chambers infers, in life there are no coincidences.
Below are links to websites that provide information on how to protect your assets or take a position in the market such that one profits as the market declines. You may already be familiar with the links provided below. If so, then consider this post as a reminder to carry on, to continue to grow in your education and effectiveness in the market arena:
Studies in Tape Reading is the truth about what moves the markets. It's written directly by market master: Richard D. Wyckoff
The End Of The Beginning
It's a brave move to take the path of independent thinking and managing your own accounts; to casting aside the constant prattle from the financial media. If you have done so, then you have scored a victory and possibly your first victory.
There have been other times where such a victory has been recorded.
As this post comes to a close, it offers a summary quote from 1942. The British have been at war for three years before their first decisive victory:
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is perhaps, the end of the beginning."
There's no guarantee this firm and its managed accounts will be able use the option strategy to prosper and make it through a mega bear market. That story has yet to be told.
However in our view, developing a bear market system and proceeding to implement that plan, is far better than watching the battle (missing the historic opportunity) from the sidelines.
After decades of research and tens of thousands of hours monitoring and working price action, it's the appointed time: The result may be financial death on the bear market battlefield but it’s infinitely better than dying a thousand times.
A statement by Churchill’s grandson about an event at his Grandfather’s funeral solidifies the connection between Churchill and his appointed place: Forward to time stamp: 55:48
The grandson describes a lone Spitfire flying over Churchill's grave just as he was being laid to rest.
My British classmates had it right.
Paul V. Mosgovoy, President: Three Ten Trading, LLC