BTU: New Lows Before Year End?
Price action is at the danger point. BTU could break-out from here or head lower for one last downdraft before year-end.
Financial sector (XLF) at a top.
Financials (XLF as proxy) have posted our sought after spring to up-thrust set-up.
The Fed announces their usual round of shenanigans tomorrow (Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EST), so anything can happen.
However, the top may be in for the current trading range: 22.00 – 30.50.
Monthly, Weekly, Daily
The monthly chart has DHI at a long term Fibonacci projection while posting bearish divergences on three time-frames.
On the daily chart (not shown), price action has been trending lower but quiet. Volatility and option prices are low at this point.
9:23 a.m. EST
The semiconductor ETF appears to be in early stages of reversal.
Note the terminating wedge that has formed over the past six months. Within the last few days we have a nascent up-thrust.
CORN: Proxy for Panic
The corn futures report at this link, shows current progress is lagging behind last year. At this point, 11% of the crop is mature vs. 24%, on average. That’s down over 54% from last year.
In addition, Ice Age Farmer just released this report, indicating northern growing areas no longer have enough (and won’t get enough) ‘heat’ to mature the crops … it’s going to be a huge loss.
Before the open
Junior Mining ETF (GDXJ): Headed Lower
If the chart of GDXJ has been read correctly and the pre-market action continues lower, GDXJ is poised for the downside.
Natural Gas UNG, is at the danger point and set to reverse.
Note how close the past three weekly closing prices are to each other. It’s an indicator of potential trend-change.
Woe to the retail money manager
The S&P forecast is based off a Fibonacci projection from the March low in 2009, to the first upswing top in April 2010, and low in July of that same year.
This projection can be done fairly easily with most any charting package.
The problem is, and especially if anyone is running a ‘retail’ operation is even having a hope of explaining such a forecast (and the meaning of it) to the ‘clientele’. Good luck with that.
Setting up for a potential major downswing and getting ready and positioning, means that participating in upside action has essentially stopped; downside opportunities are being probed or entered outright.
The burn is especially intense if you have a feel that a real break lower is coming: Yet, you’re forced to field calls about the latest (fake) unemployment report or how you’re going to squeeze the last blip out of the upside.
Of course, if the forecast just happens to be wrong, then you have a lot of ‘splaning’ to do as well as dealing with pulled accounts.
You may as well forget the retail shtick and manage your own account(s).
That part is probably coming anyway. If there’s a 30% - 50% drop overnight, the same clientele will be calling (you know, the ones that just called a day earlier) on why you did not see the break coming and get in position for it.
Oh yes, then the lawsuits. Sheesh. I lost track of how many notices my firm receives on a yearly basis of ‘class action’ lawsuits because some stock (that we traded) just happened to go down. Almost every time it goes down.
By the way, we have never …. ever, participated in any class action. If you’re dumb enough to hold a loser all the way to the bottom, well then, you already have your reward.
If you’re in retail, it’s best (my opinion only) to get out while you can. Manage your own accounts and provide training to anyone that shows promise of understanding the markets.
You won’t have many customers, but at least that will leave time to grow your own food. J
4/21/19: The Shroud
There is conjecture the shroud was originally used as the table cloth during the last supper. If so, it can’t get any more perfect.
This recent report may be the best analysis ever of what is actually imprinted on the shroud.
“We have played out this paradigm. There is no way it’s self sustaining.”
The link where this quote can be found is here. Go to time stamp 6:40.
9/17/17: Greg Hunter interviews Chris Martenson
Here is a link to an interview by Greg Hunter.
Excellent points are made in the roughly twenty five minute broadcast. Relevant time stamps are below:
Our comment centers on the assumption that one will be able to exit when ‘the signal’ is given. Well, that signal is likely to be a 15% - 30% drop overnight. No way to get out with markets frozen in fear the next day.
This is not January – February of 2000, or October 2007. The game is different.
How to use this site.
9/23/17: Market Strategy
Become A Professional Tape Reader:
Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb, were professional tape readers. They worked during pivotal times in Wall Street: The panic of 1903, 1907, World War I, roaring 20s, crash of 1929, 1930's depression, World War II, bull market of the 1950s.
Click here for free course outline
Who’s on your board of advisors?
Our list includes (but is not limited to) the following:
Finding those who know what’s really going on generates an extremely small list. It took my firm (both the current one and a prior entity) about thirty years to narrow it down.
We just did a quick search of the local financial websites (Ft. Worth, Weatherford area) which includes the typical nationwide firms, franchises as well as the local firms.
We found only one (small, three-man firm) that has even the slightest hint the overall market may be on the verge of a significant reversal.
Getting back to our list, we have this from Andrew Waldock:
The real bottom line is that Commercial traders are selling into this market at the highest level in recorded history.
“We believe a pullback in the stock market, specifically the December Dow Jones futures, is inevitable" ... Waldock
Couple that with John Hussman’s latest update and we have valuations at the highest level in history as well.
If that were not enough, going to David Weis, he notes the market is in a very tight range that will be ‘shattered’ at some point … possibly with a fake-out move to the upside before the real reversal.
There we have it. Being long under these conditions would go directly against two of the three on our list and would possibly result in a tiny gain (temporarily) followed by a significant loss if we read Weis’ comments correctly; That would make it all three.
Note: Waldock quote used with permission
The weekly chart of IBB shows that Biotech has reached the danger point. Upside penetration was the weakest sustained up-move since November ’16.
The 340-area is also a 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level.
Expectations are for continued struggle at this level or reversal.
Market Master: Wyckoff
‘Until you can focus only on price action, and until you can completely ignore the financial press, research reports, earnings statements, interviews and the like, you will never be successful in the markets.
What is the market saying about itself? Read the tape and discern the message of price action. Answer that question and you have truth.’
If you want to break out of the Wall St. deception and seek the truth of market movement, we can help.
Since 2009, Three Ten Trading, LLC, has been providing market analysis training and research reports to individuals, and management firms.
What they say, in their own words:
"Thank you very much for your weekly technical note on WLB. I'm really impressed by the clarity of your analysis. You communicate more useful information with notes on a chart than many Wall Street analysts can provide in a twenty page report. This is the best technical analysis I've seen in a long time."
Nathan Yates: Owner, Lead Consultant & Director of Research at Forward View Consulting
“Your research of the silver market and the resulting trade action that captured 98% of the move, was brilliant.”
Robert T. Logan, individual investor
"Obviously, you are very good at what you do. My experience tells me that when an individual gets to this level, there's not a lot of confirming advice out there.
I find your information useful. Most people are either unwilling or unable to get past the basics. This principle holds true in most areas of life. You may become the authority."
Larry Jernigan, individual investor
9/8/17: S&P Forecast ... Then and Now
On July 6th of last year, we presented an S&P forecast (with additional data) that was held within the password protected area.
Now, it's 14-months later. Let’s take a look. The forecast and result have been moved to the open section of this site.
Could the SPY get to the 250 level as forecasted? Indeed it did.
Price action follows Fibonacci and exhibits centuries’ old patterns. Of course, knowing where to draw the Fibonacci extension … well, that’s the hard part. J
Nonetheless, the SPY has essentially met the target. Now what?
For starters, it’s probably not a good idea to be long this market; we have our own trades in place or in work.
For example, after gold (GLD) pushed well past the 125.00 area, it signified that something more significant is afoot; something more than just a minor bull-trap reversal.
Now, we see potential for a major trap that might take weeks or months to set-up … as long as price action is confirming the hypothesis.
More on that as it develops.
Gold is moving in line with our expectations … that is, it’s not a bull market, but still in a process of setting up for a significant, and unmistakable reversal.
The ‘bugs’ have been silent on this deep retracing price action. Excuses will be (and have been) made for manipulation or Goldman Sachs controlling the market or whatever.
Sure, manipulation is a fact and has been since the inception of the markets at the buttonwood tree: Nothing new there.
Our job is not to blame manipulation but to discern just what the manipulators are trying to accomplish. Wyckoff called this action the “Composite operator”, or the ‘Central mind’.
My firm’s opinion has not changed since way back when we published on SeekingAlpha.
Until the price action shows otherwise (which of course, could always happen), there’ll not be a sustained, long term strategic bull move in precious metals until the small investor has been completely wiped out.
That will not occur until gold suffers a horrendous decline with those same investors and ‘stackers’ selling into that decline.
As a corollary, does anyone really think the little guy is going to be left unscathed and able to retain his wealth (by conventional means) through this historic world-wide process?
Getting through this wealth transfer phase requires independent thinking with quick, decisive action. Take a look at any financial management or bank sponsored website. Get the feeling they're all saying the same thing?
Personal observation after a quarter-century in the corporate world, is there's no such thing as “corporate leadership”.
The mainstream management firms and banks are going to ride this baby all the way down (they can't help themselves) and then blame the manipulators, the Fed or who knows.
There are other ways than precious metals to retain one’s wealth in (portable and) near liquid form. The metals are likely to be confiscated anyway or taxed into oblivion.
From: “Conspiracy theorist” to “Expert”, overnight.
So, those who have been preparing for EMP attack for years and derided as “paranoid” and “delusional” are now “experts” as this article calls them.
I have a friend and former co-worker that is just finishing up his fallout shelter. He has inferred that if we train him, he will allow me use of his ‘facilities’.
Two days ago, he’s a nut-case … now, he’s the expert. Oh yes, he also has a 9.3KW solar generating array … pumping power back to the local supplier. He’s an engineer and former Air Force officer. Constructing the whole power facility himself … he’s no dummy.
At the price of $3,500 for market training, his offer of nuke protection should it be needed, seems like a good deal.
By the way, I know of colleagues (including our staff) who have their own stock of Potassium Iodide … purchased long ago … but I digress.
Conversely, one has to wonder how long it will take the public to recognize that so called ‘wealth managers’ are no experts. They certainly are smart with their summa or magna cum laude. No argument there. However, academic smarts in no way translates to market smarts.
As if to prove their lack of market acumen, these outfits pump out monthly or quarterly videos that regurgitate already known financial statistics. On the surface, it looks as if they really do know what's going on.
However, if one looks closely, there is nary a mention of any kind of strategy. In our view, the whole thing is constructed to placate the masses … to keep their clients anesthetized.
Then, if and when we get a 50% overnight drop in the markets, with advice to “buy and hold” for the long term … with it all subsequently going to zero, the truth will be out all too late.
As you know, this site is for that small fraction that has awakened from the decades-long slumber.
The market masters highlighted here never even graduated high school let alone college. There are no summa or magna cum laude’s in their ranks and yet, they are considered undisputed masters.
We’re not saying we have all the answers. As David Weis said in one of his videos: ‘Sometimes, I’m totally wrong’ The difference is, those that adhere to Wyckoff analysis understand perfectly what moves the markets … we’re not delusional in our thinking that if we can slice and dice earnings reports or financial statistics, that somehow it will translate to knowing market direction.
That idea has long since been abandoned for the truth. The tape is truth.
It's The Russians
Looks like the Russian market is at the danger point.
MarketWatch attempts to explain the record highs in the Russell:
So, let’s decode the obfuscation:
Stronger Dollar: We’ve said for some time the dollar is entering spring position and its subsequent rise is a no-brainer … Apparently a surprise to MarketWatch and the masses.
Rising interest rates: Really? We’ve shown that TLT (the rate proxy) reversed long ago, had a recent up-thrust, and is now accelerating lower … rates up. So, of course, word has to come out officially and declare the obvious. It’s intended to make it look like there’re in control
Tax Reform: Only the most asleep still believe there'll be any action from our so-called elected officials on any matter (except their own enrichment) going forward. Just look at the Obama-care repeal ... case closed.
Both Livermore and Wyckoff stated that when a market tops-out, the more speculative issues (small caps) take the lead. It’s a sign a top is near or at hand.
There’s nothing new here. The market turns (dollar, bonds) are being called in advance … well in advance.
Of course it can get even more crazy and anything can happen. The dollar spring could fail and another bond-buying campaign could be announced (driving yields lower).
The difference is that my firm (at this juncture) is about 4 – 6 weeks in advance of pivots being recognized by the media. That allows us time to prepare and position at low risk.
In addition, we’ve identified one of the weakest markets in which to go short. If and when there is an outright reversal, the weak go down first.
If we get stopped out … as David Weis says “So what?” We’ll exit and look to re-position.
If we look at the chart of Tesla (TSLA), there’s nothing unexpected about the break lower.
It’s interesting to read the article at this link, and observe how it attempts to attach fundamentals to price action; Statements like ‘investors are worried about the latest model production numbers’ and so on.
It reality, the world in which Wyckoff analysts live, price action drives the news; not the other way around.
The chart of TSLA shows we’ve reached a Fibonacci projection and the move is likely over. The fundamentals will now match the price action. If there’s a retracement higher on Monday (to test the breakdown), the press will say ‘investors got too worried and bargain hunters are moving in’.
If the price action continues lower, the press will say that ‘investors remain concerned about the latest production numbers or company financials’, or similar.
It’s a tough pill to swallow (should we say, a ‘red pill’) and most if not nearly all ‘investors’ never get it. They just can’t bring themselves to realize it’s all fiction; Fundamentals and financials driving prices … compete fiction created by the financial industry.
Livermore said it years ago during an interview with Wyckoff in 1921. The main purpose of Wall Street is “deception” and the biggest deception of them all, is that fundamentals drive prices.
The news on China has been quiet lately … and maybe that’s about to change.
The U.S., Russian, and Chinese markets appear to be reaching extremes simultaneously.
The Chinese in-effect control the U.S. bond market and the Fed may or may not have control of the dollar. Both are poised for significant reversals.
A stronger dollar would most likely pressure the Russian Ruble as well … just as it did during the last go-round in 2014 – 2015.
One can imagine what international tensions would be unleashed should each market reverse with a vengeance.
Of course, MarketWatch says it's time to go big on China.
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Three Ten Trading, LLC is no longer offering market research in a public forum.
Over the past week, we have concluded the LV shooting was an inflection point for the nation on a go-forward basis.
Those who present the truth are at risk.
Risk is acceptable when there is a reward. Presenting provocative information (i.e. truth) in a public forum at no charge, contains only risk and no reward.
Therefore, all no-charge market analysis and data has been (or will be) re-located behind the password firewall.
Greg Hunter’s weekly wrap-up sums it up better than we can say. Go to time stamp 21:04 where he re-iterates what has been presented on this site for quite some time.
'It keeps working and working until one day … it doesn’t.'
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