8/16/19

 

Typical Coal Sentiment

 

All comments listed below, are from the just-released Yahoo Finance article at this link. 

  • Coal is only good for steel making and as a backup for power plants. After China, India slowly ease their dependence on coal, this industry will shrink even more. 
  • Coal is dead. Renewable energy is the future. Move on. 
  • Coal is done, [LNG], renewables, green, and other types of energy has replaced coal. Just like coal replaced wood. 
  • Coal? Lol 
  • We should bring back steam engines and paddlewheelers. 
  • coal going, going.....gone 
  • just die off already 

Only one comment had a hint of intelligence; so it received a down-vote from the group: 

  • That’s ok, coal will be needed again soon, this winter will lay bare the reliance on natural gas and renewables. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Peabody Energy (BTU), is quietly moving up from lows of August 7th.


8/13/19

 

Nothing to see here.  Move along.

 

The USDA report released yesterday, August 12th executed its prime function.  Drive the price of corn and wheat lower.

 

YouTube sites such as this one have some of those commenting scratching their heads on how there can be massive crop failures (or up-coming failures) and yet the price of corn and wheat move lower.

 

The markets are self-regulating.  If they’re too many on one side of the trade, the market by its own action will flush those positions out.

 

That’s why it’s important to pay attention to the ‘commercials’ in the commodities markets.  In the corn market, they have been short (expecting a decline) at near record levels.  So we do likewise.  Stay out.

 

As of yesterday, we see exactly why they’re short. 

 

Now, we watch to see if CORN pushes lower and heads for new yearly lows.  Doing so, would flush out nearly every last speculator and give the commercials excellent, low risk opportunity.


8/9/19

Fall is Coming ... Fast

 

"The chances of a cooler fall are drastically increasing":  Time stamp 12:49

 

This detailed and data supported video validates our position in the markets that natural gas is first, then corn.

 

Over the past weeks, nat-gas price action may be changing character right before our eyes.  This morning in the early pre-market, it was a wild ride in the futures.  We may have tested the lows as postulated in this video (from yesterday’s update).

 

My firm could still get stopped out of our position.  Anything can happen.

 

However, the data is pointing to the fact that corn prices may be kept artificially low until the onset of fall.

 

Even then, one would think there'll be significant efforts at manipulation (lower) on a go-forward basis.

 

Rising nat-gas prices would not result in wide-spread public panic.  Sure, it’s more expensive to heat your home but you’ll still be able to buy food … that is, until you’re not.


7/14/19:  Futures Account Re-activate

 

 During the next meltdown, the stock market may close but the commodity market(s) could stay open.

 

The money GPS has speculated and rightly so, during the next downturn, there'll likely be continual market closures as equities (and bonds) successively gap lower session after session.

 

This site has proposed the “50% gap-lower overnight”, scenario many times. 

 

Such behavior on a smaller scale was already exhibited during the 2008 – 2009, collapse but this time external conditions are more severe.

 

The commodity markets could be different.  They are the nuts and bolts of the economy and the nation.

 

Even the ‘elites’ need to eat. 

 

It may be just as well.  If the equities market is closed and the commodity markets remain open, it’s just one more step in separating the average from their wealth and retirement.  The futures markets require a whole other set of skills (on top of trading equities) to navigate.

 

So, it’s probably time to re-activate my firm’s account with TradeStation.  That account has been dormant for some time as it was used during mentorship with David Weis nearly ten years ago.

 

At the time, I was trading primarily gold and silver futures and had signed up (and paid for) a total of ten mentoring sessions with Weis.

 

Somewhere around the seventh or eighth session (held once a week), Weis concluded (paraphrasing) ‘You have a firm grasp on the technicals and good market sense.  There’s nothing more that I can teach you.  Would you mind giving up your remaining (mentoring) sessions to those on my waiting list?’

 

What was I going to say?  That I wanted my money’s worth:  To complete the program?  I had just received the ultimate compliment from the Wyckoff master himself.  I took it as such and relinquished my remaining spot in line ... free of charge.  J

 

I have more to say about the incredible stress experienced when opening, funding and trading a futures account for the fist time in preparation for mentoring.  That will be discussed in a future post.


3/22/19

The Data Is False But The Price Is Right

 

In the Ft. Worth Star Telegram for Wednesday March 20th, Section 12A, is a half-page page article titled:  “Hot records falling twice as often as cold ones”.  The article sites NOAA as its source for temperature data.

 

It's basically a global warming article that attempts to show how temperatures are moving higher at a brisk pace.

 

A quick review of this link (one of many) shows just how NOAA cold “records” are being deleted.  Of course, if the cold data is being erased, then it must be getting warmer, right?

 

This data eradication (or manipulation) is not just confined to one area of government sponsored entities. 

 

Let’s try unemployment numbers.  Real unemployment numbers are here

 

It’s an interesting read on how John Williams got his start on researching the actual (unreported, real) data.  For more info, go to the home page and scroll down to ‘Biographical’ information.

 

So it is with corporate earnings, inflation numbers, GDP, and on.  The good part is that from a Wyckoff analysis perspective, the official numbers are not a factor in deciphering price action. 

 

David Weis published a bond trading article in the early 80s where he discusses the Wyckoff method.  A link to Part 2, of that article is here:  Scroll to the last paragraph for his thoughts on ‘data’.

 

Wyckoff approached the market by asking; what’s the market saying about itself? 

 

Or, as Livermore put it; what is, not what do you think it is.

 

The official narrative is false.  Data is false, statistics are false and numbers are falsified; all to project the intended thought-shaping outcome.

 

The one thing not false is price  

 

The price is right (to borrow the phrase).  Delete all other distractions and focus only on price. 

 

The market itself will give clues to its next move


3/21/19

The Narrative

 

The 900 Days:  Recounting the German siege of Leningrad (St. Petersburg) during WWII.

 

During the years leading up to the assault, launched one day after the summer solstice 1941, the Russians were convinced that any such attack would be quickly repelled and subsequent fighting would not occur on Russian (Soviet) soil.

 

This belief was so entrenched into the psyche of the public as well as the military, that it was incorporated as curricula in the military academies.

 

The military was taught, trained and indoctrinated into a behavior pattern(s) of responding to an attack in a pre-defined way.

 

The results of that belief are well illustrated at this link.

 

So it is with this report.  ‘Inflation will be lower’.  Stating what will be, before it actually happens.  Most likely, massive crop failures and huge spikes in food prices (just one of several potential upsets) for 2019, are not part of the ‘official narrative’.

 

Ignoring these types of alternative data inputs stands to have a similar effect on one’s investments as the Germans had on the Russians.

 

What is the market saying about itself?