4/6/19

Woe to the retail money manager

 

The S&P forecast is based off a Fibonacci projection from the March low in 2009, to the first upswing top in April 2010, and low in July of that same year.

 

This projection can be done fairly easily with most any charting package.

 

The problem is, and especially if anyone is running a ‘retail’ operation is even having a hope of explaining such a forecast (and the meaning of it) to the ‘clientele’.  Good luck with that.

 

Setting up for a potential major downswing and getting ready and positioning, means that participating in upside action has essentially stopped; downside opportunities are being probed or entered outright.

 

The burn is especially intense if you have a feel that a real break lower is coming:  Yet, you’re forced to field calls about the latest (fake) unemployment report or how you’re going to squeeze the last blip out of the upside. 

 

Of course, if the forecast just happens to be wrong, then you have a lot of ‘splaning’ to do as well as dealing with pulled accounts.

 

You may as well forget the retail shtick and manage your own account(s).

 

That part is probably coming anyway.  If there’s a 30% - 50% drop overnight, the same clientele will be calling (you know, the ones that just called a day earlier) on why you did not see the break coming and get in position for it.

 

Oh yes, then the lawsuits.  Sheesh.  I lost track of how many notices my firm receives on a yearly basis of ‘class action’ lawsuits because some stock (that we traded) just happened to go down.  Almost every time it goes down. 

 

By the way, we have never …. ever, participated in any class action.  If you’re dumb enough to hold a loser all the way to the bottom, well then, you already have your reward.

 

If you’re in retail, it’s best (my opinion only) to get out while you can.  Manage your own accounts and provide training to anyone that shows promise of understanding the markets.

 

You won’t have many customers, but at least that will leave time to grow your own food.  J


3/22/19

The Data Is False But The Price Is Right

 

In the Ft. Worth Star Telegram for Wednesday March 20th, Section 12A, is a half-page page article titled:  “Hot records falling twice as often as cold ones”.  The article sites NOAA as its source for temperature data.

 

It's basically a global warming article that attempts to show how temperatures are moving higher at a brisk pace.

 

A quick review of this link (one of many) shows just how NOAA cold “records” are being deleted.  Of course, if the cold data is being erased, then it must be getting warmer, right?

 

This data eradication (or manipulation) is not just confined to one area of government sponsored entities. 

 

Let’s try unemployment numbers.  Real unemployment numbers are here

 

It’s an interesting read on how John Williams got his start on researching the actual (unreported, real) data.  For more info, go to the home page and scroll down to ‘Biographical’ information.

 

So it is with corporate earnings, inflation numbers, GDP, and on.  The good part is that from a Wyckoff analysis perspective, the official numbers are not a factor in deciphering price action. 

 

David Weis published a bond trading article in the early 80s where he discusses the Wyckoff method.  A link to Part 2, of that article is here:  Scroll to the last paragraph for his thoughts on ‘data’.

 

Wyckoff approached the market by asking; what’s the market saying about itself? 

 

Or, as Livermore put it; what is, not what do you think it is.

 

The official narrative is false.  Data is false, statistics are false and numbers are falsified; all to project the intended thought-shaping outcome.

 

The one thing not false is price  

 

The price is right (to borrow the phrase).  Delete all other distractions and focus only on price. 

 

The market itself will give clues to its next move


3/21/19

The Narrative

 

The 900 Days:  Recounting the German siege of Leningrad (St. Petersburg) during WWII.

 

During the years leading up to the assault, launched one day after the summer solstice 1941, the Russians were convinced that any such attack would be quickly repelled and subsequent fighting would not occur on Russian (Soviet) soil.

 

This belief was so entrenched into the psyche of the public as well as the military, that it was incorporated as curricula in the military academies.

 

The military was taught, trained and indoctrinated into a behavior pattern(s) of responding to an attack in a pre-defined way.

 

The results of that belief are well illustrated at this link.

 

So it is with this report.  ‘Inflation will be lower’.  Stating what will be, before it actually happens.  Most likely, massive crop failures and huge spikes in food prices (just one of several potential upsets) for 2019, are not part of the ‘official narrative’.

 

Ignoring these types of alternative data inputs stands to have a similar effect on one’s investments as the Germans had on the Russians.

 

What is the market saying about itself?